Friday, December 11, 2020

Disney Investor Day: December 2020: Analysis

My notes from watching the Disney Investor Day presentation.

First, here's the page, with an embedded video.
It's three and a half hours, just like the last Avengers movie! 

So, let's begin...  I'm kinda liveblogging...

3:38    86.8 million subscribers on Disney+  
Disney+Hotstar,  part of Star India, has 300 million active users. We'll see if they discuss this later in the broadcast.

3:45    "DTC-first business model"
Direct-to-consumer. Cut out the middleman. 

4:20    "One billion ... true fans"
A Disney army. "Who's the leader of the club that's made for you and me?"

Note the background slides. Star and National Geographic are shown, but Disney has yet to really promote those brands.

Hmm... no Twentyfirst Century Fox logos shown. That's a big chunk of legacy and property!

7:10    "...1957 schematic..."
(This deserves a separate post!)

9:10  "...coming launch of our Star brand..."
There it is... Disney streaming, outside the U.S.  "Hulu International"

10:15    Kareem Daniel

12:50    Disney is prioritizing DTC distribution. (No surprise there.)

13:45    Ten Marvel series, ten Star Wars series, fifteen Disney and Pixar series, and fifteen Disney and Pixar features.

It's like The Wonderful World of Disney, if it were on all five broadcast channels.
WHOA... new Pixar features on Disney+! 

Given the Pandemic, this is expected. Animation can be done in seclusion and isolation. Voice acting can be done in a closet, if the equipment is excellent. With direction via conference calls, it's not much different than if they are in a studio. 

Animation..that requires a more robust infrastructure. Not difficult to move workstations to a home office...but it does require a dedicated network to transmit loads of data for rendering.

15:10    Raya and the Last Dragon debuting simultaneously on Plus and theaters.

16:35    Rebecca Campbell

17:10    2024 forecast for growth, from 2019:
60-90 Million Disney+, 40-60M Hulu, 8-12 ESPN+
12/02.2020 numbers: 
86.8M Disney+ (30% are Hotstar (India) subscribers), 38.8 M Hulu, 11.5M ESPN+

137 million now, vs. 162 million goal.

18:55    22 European and Anglo-American markets. Plus a beachhead in Asia.
November 2020 launch in 21 Latin America markets.

"EMEA" = 
Europe, the Middle East and Africa
Eastern Europe, South Korea, and Hong Kong.

19:50    Michael Paull
More partners and access across multiple platforms and countries.

23:55    Expansion globally
India's example:
Star TV, Hotstar
Disney+ Hotstar
7 languages, cricket part of the service.

Indonesia is next. (Fifth most populous country in the world.)

Star is "Disney plus" in foreign languages.
In Anglo-American markets, Star is part of Disney+, one of six brand tiles.

Will Disney offer ala carte menus for watching foreign-language offerings domestically? Can I watch Coco in Brazilian Portuguese? Or Mulan in the original Mandarin?

28:00    Jerrell Jimerson

Star is the ADULT corner of Disney+! The Fox/Touchstone catalog!

30:50    Latin America strategy
The Star+ menu...  that's a pretty good user interface. I hope they offer filters for fans... "Show me only soccer matches available now."     

34:35    Kelly Campbell

36:45    Hulu charges $65, and makes an additional $10 on ad revenue per subscriber.

39:45    ESPN programming available on Hulu at no added cost.

Will Disney offer ad-supported packages for the other services?

42:00    ESPN+ update

43:40    Jimmy Pitaro
SEC in 2024 on ABC and elsewhere.
Extra SEC games on ESPN+ next year.
Bundesliga. PGA.

A new "SportsCenter"-style show for ESPN+
Peyton's Places renewed for a third season.

Bob Iger

Interesting...  ABC is not a big brand. There might be some news programs. As a network, it's just a another way to broadcast media...much is produced by other divisions or production companies. ABC Sports' brand is's all ESPN now. 

Good Morning America can become a franchise, aimed at the New Parent demographic, senior citizens, and others. 

55:10    Sizzle reel!   (nope... edited out)

Dana Walden talks. What's interesting are the many television shows and series in the background. Disney+ isn't known for that... Netflix, Peacock, CBS, they promote that because they don't have a huge movie catalog. Disney's brand is family fare. With Star becoming the 18+ side of the service, Disney can mine that rich catalog of television shows.

Only Murders in the Building (no video) has a good cast!
The Dropout with Kate McKinnon!
Dopesick   When was the last time Michael Keaton was on television?
Nine Perfect Strangers

Season five of A Handmaid's Tale announced.

1:01:00    John Landgraf

FX.  Lots of high reviews on IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes.
Four more seasons of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Lots of ...
Y THE LAST MAN?!  A DC Comics title, at FX. 
WHOA. Drinking the milkshake.

Alien television series. Set on Earth.
Shogun. Paramount produced the 1980 miniseries.

1:11:25    Lucasfilm and Kathleen Kennedy

1:13:15    Mandalorian Season Two re-view
Two new spinoff series!
"Climatic story event"?!

1:17:15    Stagecraft
Three new "volumes" being built in Los Angeles, London, and Australia. 
High definition virtual LCD screen replaces a greenscreen.

Star Wars Andor  spy thriller
Obi-Wan Kenobi

The Bad Batch  Dirty Dozen meets Clone Wars?
Star Wars Visions  animated anthology  ANIME


Acolyte  Star Wars mystery set during the High Republic.
A Droid Story

Willow !!!

Indiana Jones!   July 2022 [but not the Fourth of July weekend... that's claimed by Black Panther II]

A new character!  Children of Blood and Bone adaptation

Star Wars theatrical

Patty Jenkins!  Rogue Squadron   Christmas 2023

1:27:55    Courtenay Monroe 
National Geographic
Cousteau documentary
Secrets of the Whales  James Cameron
A Real Bug's Life  micro-camera documentary
American the Beautiful   an F-15 flying at the speed of sound aerial photography!

Darren Aronofsky 
Limitless with Chris Hemsworth six-part series about aging
Welcome to Earth with Will Smith

1:42:00  Dana Walden in Springfield with the Simpsons!
Homer gives his thoughts on Disney+!
The Mighty Ducks: Game Changers
Turner & Hooch
Big Shot 
David E. Kelley! Private girls school, Basketball. 

Beauty and the Beast: The Prequel Series  ALAN MENKIN music!
Swiss Family Robinson
Percy Jackson and the Olympians
The Mysterious Benedict Society

1:49:55    Sean Bailey
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures Productions

Hocus Pocus 2
Three Men and a Baby  2022 Zac Ephron     
Safety  True story from Clemson University
Greek Freak
Chris Paul memoir
Flora & Ulysses
Cheaper by the Dozen multiethnic
Diary of a Wimpy Kid
Ice Age Adventures of Buck Wild
Night at the Museum  animated!
July 2021   Jungle Cruise  Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt
Lion King prequel
The Little Mermaid remake
Chip 'n' Dale Rescue Rangers live-action/animated hybrid   Spring 2022
Pinocchio  Robert Zemeckis and Tom Hanks!
Peter Pan & Wendy
Sister Act 3
Cruella  1970s punk rock London

2:04:55   Jennifer Lee
Raya and the Last Dragon   March 5,  2021

Walt Disney Animation Studios  original series
Baymax! as a nurse.
Tiana longform animated series
Moana longform series
Iwaju !!!
Fall 2021    Colombia. musical. Encanto   Lin-Manuel Miranda

2:14:10  Pete Docter  Pixar

Burrow (Spark Shorts)
Inside Pixar
Pixar Popcorn
Dug Days (Up series)
Cars road trip!
longform animated series  Win or Lose  multiple points of view!
Luca  June 2021
Spring 2022  Turning Red
Summer 2022    science fiction  Lightyear  The ORIGINAL Buzz Lightyear, which is what the toy is based on!  Chris Evans

2:26:40  Kevin Feige

America Chavez appears in the next Doctor Strange movie!  March 25, 2022
December 2021  Spider-Man movie
The Falcon and the Winter Soldier six episodes
May 7, 2021  Black Widow
Loki series   crime thriller   THE TVA!
What If...?
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings   July 9, 2021
Ms. Marvel
Captain Marvel 2  Ms. Marvel will appear! Along with Monica Rambeau, the other Captain Marvel
Eternals   November 5, 2021
She Hulk
Moon Night
Secret Invasion
Armor Wars
The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special
I am Groot
Thor: Love and Thunder  May 6, 2002
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania  KANG.
Black Panther II  July 8, 2022
Fantastic Four 

2:47:25    Bob Iger
2:49:55    Christine McCarthy
Disney Media and Entertainment
Disney Parks, Experiences and Products

Disney+ guidance  2024
April 2019: 60-90M  
December 2020: 230-260M  globally

Profitable in 2024.
Hulu   40-60   50-60M 
ESPN+ 8-12M    20-30M

300 - 350 Million total global subscriptions (137 Million now)

3:03:15    Bob Chapek

Investor questions

A big chunk of subscribers are families without children

63 series 42 films   80% destined for Disney+